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Abstract Low-pass single-cell DNA sequencing technologies and algorithmic advancements have enabled haplotype-specific copy number calling on thousands of cells within tumors. However, measurement uncertainty may result in spurious CNAs inconsistent with realistic evolutionary constraints. We introduce evolution-aware copy number calling via deep reinforcement learning (CNRein). Our simulations demonstrate CNRein infers more accurate copy-number profiles and better recapitulates ground truth clonal structure than existing methods. On sequencing data of breast and ovarian cancer, CNRein produces more parsimonious solutions than existing methods while maintaining agreement with single-nucleotide variants. Additionally, CNRein shows consistency on a breast cancer patient sequenced with distinct low-pass technologies. 

Cancer results from an evolutionary process that typically yields multiple clones with varying sets of mutations within the same tumor. Accurately modeling this process is key to understanding and predicting cancer evolution. Here, we introduce clone to mutation (CloMu), a flexible and low-parameter tree generative model of cancer evolution. CloMu uses a two-layer neural network trained via reinforcement learning to determine the probability of new mutations based on the existing mutations on a clone. CloMu supports several prediction tasks, including the determination of evolutionary trajectories, tree selection, causality and interchangeability between mutations, and mutation fitness. Importantly, previous methods support only some of these tasks, and many suffer from overfitting on data sets with a large number of mutations. Using simulations, we show that CloMu either matches or outperforms current methods on a wide variety of prediction tasks. In particular, for simulated data with interchangeable mutations, current methods are unable to uncover causal relationships as effectively as CloMu. On breast cancer and leukemia cohorts, we show that CloMu determines similarities and causal relationships between mutations as well as the fitness of mutations. We validate CloMu's inferred mutation fitness values for the leukemia cohort by comparing them to clonal proportion data not used during training, showing high concordance. In summary, CloMu's low-parameter model facilitates a wide range of prediction tasks regarding cancer evolution on increasingly available cohort-level data sets. 

Abstract MotivationMultiple sequence alignment (MSA) is a basic step in many bioinformatics pipelines. However, achieving highly accurate alignments on large datasets, especially those with sequence length heterogeneity, is a challenging task. Ultra-large multiple sequence alignment using Phylogeny-aware Profiles (UPP) is a method for MSA estimation that builds an ensemble of Hidden Markov Models (eHMM) to represent an estimated alignment on the full-length sequences in the input, and then adds the remaining sequences into the alignment using selected HMMs in the ensemble. Although UPP provides good accuracy, it is computationally intensive on large datasets. ResultsWe present UPP2, a direct improvement on UPP. The main advance is a fast technique for selecting HMMs in the ensemble that allows us to achieve the same accuracy as UPP but with greatly reduced runtime. We show that UPP2 produces more accurate alignments compared to leading MSA methods on datasets exhibiting substantial sequence length heterogeneity and is among the most accurate otherwise. Availability and implementationhttps://github.com/gillichu/sepp. Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.